2016 Elections Darjeeling hills - discussing the possibilities

2016 ELECTIONS: PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS – DISCUSSING THE POSSIBILITIES

Writes : Upendra

The Chinese have a saying, “may you live in interesting times”... it is both a blessing and a curse. Interesting times could mean, a time of widespread success or even a time of utter chaos. As far as Darjeeling is concerned, it almost feels like someone or the other wished us “interesting times.”

Elections are here folks, and Darjeeling as usual is simmering with tension under the surface. There is a curiosity about the newly formed Jan Andolan Party, and old guards of GNLF are reviving their loyalty towards “Hariyo Jhanda.”CPRM and AIGL have remained in the sidelines as the drama unfolds; Congress and CPI(M) have been more or less silent too. GJM in the meanwhile is trying to hold on to the people, and even though they have made new friends in the Terai and Dooars, some old comrades are leaving them and siding with TMC.

Since we haven’t had Panchayat elections, the only reference point we have to evaluate the political possibilities in the three hill constituencies are the data from 2014 MP elections. Much has changed on the grounds since then, however, this is the only data point we have to compare and contrast some political possibilities in the coming days.

In 2014 elections, GJM supported BJP candidate Shri. SS Ahluwalia garnered a total of 289,017 votes, where as the entire opposition had garnered 161,714 votes (including the NOTA). It is interesting to note that None of the Above (NOTA) had garnered more votes than candidates from CPI(M), Congress and Gorkha Rastriya Congress. Dr. Mahendra P Lama was then supported by CPRM, DDUDF, BGP and AIGL; and Mr. Bhaihung Bhutia of TMC was supported by GNLF.

All said and done, GJM had garnered 55% more votes than the entire opposition combined.

This means that for the opposition parties to win in the hill region, they need to come together and after that, try and get at least 60% votes swing in their favour. Despite all their flaws, GJM base is holding strong and even if there is a swing, a massive 60% swing against them is highly unlikely, at least in the upcoming elections. Also the entire Hill opposition coming together to contest elections are exceedingly improbable.

This thus, opens up a wide range of possibilities for collaborations amongst the various political entities in our hills.

THOSE ASPIRING FOR GORKHALAND
Amongst the political parties championing the cause of Gorkhaland are GJM, GNLF and CPRM. Their methods and how they aspire to achieve it are markedly different though. CPRM doesn’t believe in interim set ups like GTA, and if it was up to them, they would rather dissolve GTA and continue the struggle for Gorkhaland statehood outright. GNLF on the other hand is currently seeking Schedule VI status for the GTA region, with the eventual aim of attaining Gorkhaland.

Meanwhile GJM is running the GTA and to be honest their situation is like the classic Nepali proverb – “Khayis ta hasiya, abo hagera hyer.” For them GTA is something they cannot afford to give up for the fear of Bengal running it through various proxies, and at the same time, they have not been able to run GTA the way it was expected to function.

Indeed there are multiple reasons for improper functioning of GTA, the primary factor being the non-transfer of funds, departments and powers by the Bengal government. Add to that the haphazard and often arbitrary functioning of the party bosses, and a system of nepotism and corruption has made GTA an almost non-functional administrative body, without any real powers. This has resulted in gross disenchantment amongst the general public against the usefulness of GTA, and thus their growing anger towards GJM.

However, currently GJM still continues to strive for Gorkhaland state and that is perhaps what is keeping their base from deserting them en masse.

THOSE ASPIRING FOR DEVELOPMENT
Making a marked shift from the usual ‘Gorkha’ and ‘Gorkhaland’ rhetoric, the Jan Andolan Party is silently increasing their support base. Their focus is in ensure

Via TheDC

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